FPL Manager – FPLMariner Profile
This week, we have the pleasure to speak to FPLMariner, an active FPL manager who follows Grimsby Town and lives in Singapore. FPLMariner is active on Twitter so do follow him!
Hi, FPLMariner, tell us a little about yourself.
Hi I’m FPLMariner, aka Chris Turner. I have been living in Singapore since 2017 and works in the shipping industry.
If you look at my Twitter profile, you can tell that I support Grimsby Town – the Mighty Mariners! I have seen them at over 70 different grounds in the UK, across four league divisions including the Conference.
I am a huge football fan and have been several tournaments, including Euro 2016 in France.
Back in the day I had the chance of seeing Town at Wembley twice in seven days, not bad given I was living in Dubai at the time and flew back twice (we won one and lost one!).
Oh, hi Chris. Who do you follow other than Grimsby?
When I first started following football Nottingham Forest was a top team so I followed them a bit and remember them signing the first 1 million pound footballer, Trevor Francis. If I have to pick a team currently in the Premier League it would be Liverpool as I like their style of play and Jurgen Klopp as a manager.
Here is my latest, talking about my disastrous GW04.
What’s your history in FPL like then?
- 2018/19 OR 51k
- 2019/20 OR 94k
Wow, those are impressive finishes. What is your overall strategy?
I say it would be gut feel backed by statistics. Sometimes given my job and the time difference I dont have chance to watch all matches so I fall back on stats for ideas.
I gather a host of statistics week on week and analyse it up on my spreadsheets. In particular I use statistics to find players who are over or underperforming, using metrics like Expected Goals (Xg) and Expected Assists (Xa).
I also like to look for bargains by looking at statistics like Points per Million (PPM), chances of rotation and fixture difficulty over the next 5 fixtures.
An example of this would be my watchlist for defenders which filters out players who are benched for 30% or more, those selected by more than 10% owners and then sorted by team Xga90 (expected goals against them per 90 minutes and Xi (expected Involvement adding goals and assists together).
Quite a season so far in the Premier League, what are your early thoughts?
I think its reasonable to assume after 4 weeks that penalties are a very important consideration. Even with some pragmatism which has been promised, the number of penalties so far is worthy of our consideration. I expect I will have at least three penalty takers in my team.
As with the current goal spree, we need to be careful when we look at the first four GWs. Many of us have been blindsided by the randomness of results against fixture difficulties.
For example Liverpool had a difference in Fixture Difficult Rating (FDR) of 4 over Aston Villa. How wrong was that!
We also need to consider Xg against actual goals. For example – Aston Villa scored 7 goals, but only created an Xg of 3.12, a figure borne out by 3 deflected goals.
If you look at goal sprees on a more granular basis you would look at a comparison between Dominic Calvert Lewin and Patrick Bamford, one who is performing close to his Xg and the latter who will undoubtedly regress. Is it time for Rodrigo soon?
As for new signings, I feel we need to give them time to bed in – some players hit the ground running, others take more time and some managers take longer to integrate them (Nuno Santo at Wolves for example).
I also consider the effects of the new signings on the rest of the team, like who will lose game time and who will be kicked out of the team entirely. For example, Lucas Moura is expected to be the biggest loser when Gareth Bale finally pulls a Spurs shirt on.
How about some expert FPL predictions then?
I believe the Spurs attack of Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min and eventually Gareth Bale will do very well over course of the rest of the season. Elsewhere, I also rate Jarrod Bowen, Tomas Soucek and Michail Antonio at West Ham – they are underrated at this stage but will go on to do very well.
At the other end, I would stay away from Sheff Utd players. They are suffering the second season syndrome and looks set for a relegation fight before long.
Fulham and WBA will also struggle in form and in terms of goals.
Are you going to use your wildcard on GW05?
Yes I will be. Watch this space and I will share more as the week progresses.
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