FPL GW30 Picks
With a lot of managers playing their wildcard in GW31, this week is all about a one-week punt. Every recommendation in this article will be based on performance and underlying stats from the last four gameweeks and focusing solely on the fixture for GW30.
FPL GW30 Picks – BUY
Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.8m / 6.8%)
With a home game against West Brom, who rank joint bottom for goals scored and third worst for xG (as well as being 6th for xGC), a Chelsea defender is a no-brainer this week. Depending on who you pick, it would not be unreasonable to expect points at both ends of the pitch.
If you don’t mind taking a risk, Alonso could a great pick but you would have to accept he will either be getting a double-digit haul or a 1-pointer and that is assuming he even gets on the pitch (he has made just 1 appearance in the last 4).
Azpilicueta, on the other hand, has played every minute. As well as being a reliable source of defensive points, he is also top of all Chelsea defenders for Key Passes and xA.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m / 36.0%)
A stat which caught my eye this week was that Crystal Palace top the tables for highest number of headed shots conceded. We all know that DCL loves a header so this could make for an interesting combination.
A word of warning, DCL seems to have been playing out wider in the past few games which is likely contributing to his below par return rate and this could have an impact against Roy Hodgson’s men. My gut is telling me that Ancelloti won’t be blind to these stats and we could well see a return to a more central role for DCL.
FPL GW30 Picks – SELL
Lewis Dunk (£5.0m / 9.2%)
Owners of Lewis Dunk can be pleased with his returns over the last two weeks and he has done the job that was expected of him. Although Brighton have been good defensively, I believe Manchester United will prove a bit much for them so, if you are investing in a Chelsea defender, then Lewis Dunk is a suitable candidate to make way.
Ilkay Gundogan (£6.1m / 35.1%)
Feels a little controversial this one but with my logical head on, there’s a good chance of the German international being rotated this week (due to minutes played for Germany) and, even if he gets game time, Man City are playing Leicester which isn’t exactly the kindest fixture.
If you are bringing in a midfielder, Gundogan going the other way could make sense.
FPL GW30 Picks – KEEP
Ollie Watkins (£6.6m / 27.2%)
As frustrating as it must be for Watkins’ owners, I believe this could be a good week to keep him. Aside from the fact he faces Fulham – who whilst being no pushovers are one of the better opposing fixtures – Watkins could be boosted by the return of Jack Grealish, who was recently pictured back in training.
Even without Grealish, Watkins is joint third of all players for shots in the box. With Grealish providing the passes, this could go sky high.
Heung-Min Son (£9.4m / 43.0%)
The South Korean is the most sold player ahead of GW30 which to me is strange as there are many indications that he will be fit to return against Newcastle, which is a great fixture.
Many sources are reporting that Son was left out of the South Korea squad for their friendly with Japan in order to maximise his chances of being fully recovered for the weekend.
If you’ve still got him, I’d keep him; sellers could really regret it.
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