FPL When to take a hit of -4
One of our favourite and least favourite elements of Fantasy Premier League is the part where you have a choice to use -4 points to make an additional transfer during a gameweek. The game of course allows you to make one free transfer per gameweek and an additional one if you had not utilised the free transfer the previous week.
The option to be able to use points for transfer often presents a tantalising scenario for all managers. Suffice to say, if used wisely, it can reward you well and leave you with a deep sense of accomplishment. The reverse is also true – to utilise it on a player who does poorly is doubly painful.
Our pointer: To score 4 points a gameweek, a player have to do more than just play for more than 60 minutes (ignoring the captaincy). He will at least need to have an assist/goal OR keep a clean sheet if he is a defender or goalkeeper.
Let’s go through when we think it’s acceptable to pay for additional transfers…
When (a lot of) your players are injured/suspended
You have a squad of 15 players but there may come a time where you cannot field a team of 11 players who will start games. This is a scenario to consider paying for a transfer, simply because the opportunity cost of using is lower.
Think about it. If you want to transfer in a player for another who is likely to start, that player you bought must score 4 more points over and above the base of 2 to make the transfer worthwhile. Even an assist is only worth 3 points. If you are replacing a player who is definitely not playing (0), then the player you transferred in only need to score a total of 4 points to balance the transaction.
When you are approaching a double gameweek
A proper double gameweek comes towards the tail-end of the season, after teams pile up fixtures because of Cup / Europe participation or inclement weather. Last season, one such proper double gameweek came on gameweek 35 – a total of 15 fixtures and 10 teams playing twice.
We will talk about the rest of the chips next time, but without a wildcard, it may make sense to pay for transfers in preparation for a double gameweek. For players who are bound to start, the base points are already 4 points. They of course also have 180mins to score and assist.
When your most expensive player is out for a few games
As mentioned, the game allows a free transfer every gameweek. Imagine your most expensive player is out for a month. Replacing him with any other forward in the game frees you up with at least 2-3m to upgrade other parts of your squad immediately.
When you are going for broke
Imagine you are in second place and 10 points away from the top in your private league and the prize is a million bucks. Your line-up is decent but nothing special. The sad thing is, all your strikers are the same as your mate who is topping this. Playing it safe will gain you nothing.
This is when you have to gamble and yes, this is when you use points to get that additional transfer.
You start the week with a -14 point deficit but hey, at least 66.7% of your strike-force is different from the team you need to beat. You may not win it but the 4 points here will present you with the opportunity.
When there is an obvious choice for the captaincy.
There will be gameweeks where there is an obvious choice for the captaincy. Say Player X has been on form and he plays the bottom club in the next feature, at home. You do not have Player X in your team and pretty much everyone else around you have him. This may present the scenario for you to take the -4 and get him in.
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